Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 0.095933 0.107067 0.118593 0.131384 0.145155 0.159505 0.175559
2024-11-03 0.083035 0.100218 0.118986 0.140874 0.165564 0.192420 0.223707
2024-11-10 0.068349 0.088811 0.112296 0.140921 0.174536 0.212436 0.258063
2024-11-17 0.058456 0.081201 0.108485 0.143024 0.184973 0.233669 0.293844
2024-11-24 0.049960 0.073964 0.103968 0.143287 0.192486 0.251064 0.325083
2024-12-01 0.046415 0.072411 0.106009 0.151255 0.209191 0.279513 0.369863
2024-12-08 0.043501 0.071224 0.108161 0.159124 0.225713 0.307890 0.414980
2024-12-15 0.038578 0.066621 0.105237 0.159914 0.232883 0.324490 0.445614
2024-12-22 0.033095 0.060553 0.099721 0.156701 0.234411 0.333680 0.466851
2024-12-29 0.031066 0.059394 0.100887 0.162460 0.247764 0.358093 0.507630
2025-01-05 0.028699 0.057431 0.100670 0.166132 0.258254 0.378866 0.543986
2025-01-12 0.026357 0.055236 0.099890 0.168839 0.267350 0.397850 0.578222
2025-01-19 0.023830 0.052636 0.098553 0.171006 0.276245 0.417432 0.614578
2025-01-26 0.023727 0.054236 0.103831 0.183173 0.299619 0.457074 0.678328
2025-02-02 0.021093 0.051038 0.101301 0.183520 0.306196 0.474147 0.712500
2025-02-09 0.019202 0.048962 0.100390 0.186193 0.316088 0.495855 0.753167
2025-02-16 0.017106 0.046210 0.098117 0.186564 0.322519 0.512803 0.787591
2025-02-23 0.016767 0.046913 0.101704 0.196234 0.342841 0.549380 0.849166
2025-03-02 0.016422 0.047545 0.105159 0.205748 0.363078 0.586095 0.911353
2025-03-09 0.014842 0.045344 0.103430 0.206705 0.370322 0.604410 0.948278
2025-03-16 0.012771 0.041754 0.098917 0.202830 0.370013 0.611863 0.970165
2025-03-23 0.012281 0.041710 0.100891 0.209777 0.386420 0.643472 1.026023
2025-03-30 0.011519 0.040916 0.101386 0.214201 0.398963 0.669643 1.074544